In the coming weeks, the US Congress could cement China’s lead in the clean-energy race by passing the Republican Party’s “big, beautiful bill”, which, among other things, seeks to eliminate the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy tax incentives. This would prompt America’s retreat from renewables, such as solar, wind and hydrogen, as well as electric vehicles ( EVs ) and the required charging infrastructure, fatally undermining its efforts to challenge China’s dominance in green industries.

The numbers are staggering. Globally, China accounts for 65% of manufacturing capacity for wind turbines and more than 80% for solar panels, in addition to dominating the production of energy storage systems and EVs. China also largely controls the mining and refining of the minerals required for these green products, processing around 90% of rare earth elements and 60% to 70% of cobalt and lithium.

Unlike oil and gas production, which is spread across many countries, China has become the world’s undisputed leader in clean energy – not just one technology or market segment, but almost the entire portfolio. The Chinese industrial machine has thus played an indispensable role in the global energy transition. China’s massive domestic deployment of renewables – including its more than 800 gigawatts of installed solar and its world-leading onshore and offshore wind buildout – has dramatically lowered the costs of green tech. And its export capacity has made these products more accessible and affordable, particularly in the Global South.

China pursued this agenda not in response to climate change, but because of its own energy insecurity. In 2009, the Chinese government, recognizing the vulnerability implied by its dependence on imported fossil fuels and foreign-controlled energy markets, adopted a long-term industrial strategy to become a global manufacturing superpower in clean tech.

At the time, Germany and Japan led the world in solar innovation. But, through state subsidies, regulatory coordination and strategic planning, China absorbed, replicated and scaled up these existing technologies, while also innovating and developing new ones – especially for batteries. Today, China’s clean tech sector is its most competitive, accounting for 10% of GDP.

China’s dominance rests on a deeply integrated, highly coordinated manufacturing ecosystem. Many of the critical inputs for solar panels, batteries and EVs are located within a three-to-four-hour radius, enabling rapid production, tight quality control and unmatched cost efficiency. This geographic density results in cheaper products, but also the ability to outcompete on speed. The country’s supply-chain optimization was no accident – it was a deliberate policy choice that required regional coordination and billions of renminbi in infrastructure investment.

Government support went far beyond subsidies. As part of its broader economic strategy, China poured capital into research and development at universities, tech parks and manufacturing zones, scaling innovation and driving cost parity faster than any other country. The state didn’t pick winners – it built them, and then doubled down when the model worked.

In 2021, Chinese President Xi Jinping told the United Nations General Assembly that China would “step up support for other developing countries in developing green and low-carbon energy”. So far, the country has fulfilled its commitment: last year, nearly half of Chinese solar, wind and EV exports went to the Global South, where energy demand is surging and capital is scarce.

China’s renewables push has been a boon for these growth-rich and energy-poor emerging economies. Rather than waiting on fragmented aid or high-cost Western solutions, many governments find China’s turnkey clean-energy projects to be the only option – when the choice is between no grid and a Chinese grid, pragmatism often trumps geopolitics. No other exporter can match China’s coordinated bundling, because few possess the industrial depth and the patient capital to underwrite entire systems.

As a result, almost all of Ghana’s solar installations use Chinese inputs. In Indonesia and Kenya, Chinese firms are helping to modernize grids and electrify rural regions. Across Africa, Chinese-built EVs – costing less than US$15,000 – are quickly becoming many people’s first vehicles. And that trend looks set to continue. The price points and production scale of BYD, China’s EV champion, are reshaping the global auto market and have made the country the world’s top car exporter. By 2030, Chinese automakers are expected to capture 39% of the market in Africa and the Middle East.

The US government’s policy whiplash – one administration’s zeal for clean energy followed by the next administration’s disdain for it – has squandered America’s opportunity to become the world’s low-carbon leader, not to mention its long-held advantage in innovation. China is now firmly in the driver’s seat, thanks to a multi-decade push to build its clean tech industry, dominate supply chains, and export low-cost means of electrification to the world.

Carolyn Kissane is the associate dean and a clinical professor at the New York University School of Professional Studies Center for Global Affairs and the founding director of NYU’s Energy, Climate and Sustainability Lab.

Copyright: Project Syndicate