Organizations risk turning artificial intelligence ( AI ) from a strategic opportunity into a source of enterprise exposure, according to a recent report.
AI strategy miscalculation – appearing for the first time in Gartner’s Quarterly Emerging Risk Report – is cited as the third most concerning issue by the 308 enterprise risk management ( ERM ) leaders, auditors and senior executives surveyed by the business and technology insights firm.
That issue ranks behind AI discovery of cyber vulnerabilities and geopolitical energy supply shocks ( see Table 1 ), which held the top two risk concerns for last quarter as well.
Table 1: Top emerging risks of 3Q 2026
Source: Gartner ( November 2026 )
“AI risk is moving beyond technology and governance concerns into the core of enterprise strategy,” says Kevin Mercado, senior principal analyst for research in Gartner’s risk and audit practice. “The emergence of AI strategy miscalculation and AI-driven competitive displacement reflects growing concern that organizations could either make major decisions based on anticipated benefits that fail to materialize or lose ground to competitors that use AI more effectively.”
AI strategy miscalculation involves investing in AI too aggressively, the report warns, selecting unsuitable use cases or moving ahead before organizations are prepared to manage the technology’s operational, cultural and governance implications. Competitive urgency can outpace organizational readiness and create AI strategy miscalculations.
“Organizations,” Mercado points out, “risk pursuing AI initiatives without sufficiently testing whether the use case aligns with business priorities, risk tolerance, available capabilities and expected returns.”
The creation of a strategic AI action plan is recommended by the report to help ERM leaders manage risk and create value by addressing common mistakes at each stage of the AI journey ( see Figure 1 ).
Figure 1: Strategic AI action plans can manage risk and create value
Source: Gartner ( November 2026 )
Risk leaders, the report shares, can help embed these kinds of resolutions across the organization, regardless of whether they are framed as value-creation initiatives or risk-mitigation activities.
This includes ensuring that AI investments are tied to strategic priorities, that readiness and governance requirements are addressed before scaling, and that value is measured through AI’s impact on decision-making, not just productivity.
“Organizations should evaluate AI as a portfolio of business decisions,” Mercado adds. “The organizations most likely to realize sustained value will connect AI investments to clear business outcomes, validate readiness before scaling and establish governance that supports responsible experimentation.”
